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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">cardiotomsk</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Сибирский журнал клинической и экспериментальной медицины</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Siberian Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2713-2927</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2713-265X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>TSU publishing</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29001/2073-8552-2025-40-3-170-177</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">cardiotomsk-2831</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>КЛИНИЧЕСКИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>CLINICAL STUDIES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Персонализированный алгоритм прогнозирования формирования бронхоэктазов у больных хроническим слизисто-гнойным бронхитом</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Personalized algorithm for predicting the formation of bronchiectasis in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Вязовой</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vyazovoy</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Вязовой Артём Владимирович - клинический ординатор, кафедра внутренних болезней, педиатрический факультет, Астраханский ГМУ Минздрава России.</p><p>414000, Астрахань, ул. Бакинская, 121</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Artyom V. Vyazovoy - Clinical Resident, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Pediatrics, Astrakhan State Medical University.</p><p>121, Bakinskaya str., Astrakhan, 414000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">viazovoiav@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3679-432X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Полунина</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Polunina</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Полунина Екатерина Андреевна - д-р мед. наук, доцент, кафедра внутренних болезней, педиатрический факультет, Астраханский ГМУ Минздрава России.</p><p>414000, Астрахань, ул. Бакинская, 121</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Ekaterina A. Polunina - Dr. Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor of Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Pediatric Faculty, Astrakhan State Medical University.</p><p>121, Bakinskaya str., Astrakhan, 414000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">gilti2@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3260-2677</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Прокофьева</surname><given-names>Т. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Prokofieva</surname><given-names>T. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Прокофьева Татьяна Васильевна - д-р мед. наук, доцент кафедра внутренних болезней, педиатрический факультет, Астраханский ГМУ Минздрава России.</p><p>414000, Астрахань, ул. Бакинская, 121</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Tatiana V. Prokofieva - Dr. Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor of Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Pediatric Faculty, Astrakhan State Medical University.</p><p>121, Bakinskaya str., Astrakhan, 414000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">prokofeva-73@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8299-6582</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Полунина</surname><given-names>О. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Polunina</surname><given-names>O. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Полунина Ольга Сергеевна - д-р мед. наук, заведующий кафедрой внутренних болезней, педиатрический факультет, Астраханский ГМУ Минздрава России.</p><p>414000, Астрахань, ул. Бакинская, 121</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Olga S. Polunina - Dr. Sci. (Med.), Head of Internal Medicine Department of Pediatric Department, Astrakhan State Medical University.</p><p>121, Bakinskaya str., Astrakhan, 414000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">admed@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Астраханский государственный медицинский университет Министерства здравоохранения Российской Федерации (Астраханский ГМУ Минздрава России)</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education «Astrakhan State Medical University», Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Astrakhan State Medical University)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>05</day><month>10</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>40</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>170</fpage><lpage>177</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Вязовой А.В., Полунина Е.А., Прокофьева Т.В., Полунина О.С., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Вязовой А.В., Полунина Е.А., Прокофьева Т.В., Полунина О.С.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Vyazovoy A.V., Polunina E.A., Prokofieva T.V., Polunina O.S.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.sibjcem.ru/jour/article/view/2831">https://www.sibjcem.ru/jour/article/view/2831</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. Хронический бронхит – наиболее распространенное хроническое заболевание легких. Основная проблема данного заболевания состоит в поздней диагностике вследствие невыраженной клинической симптоматики и несвоевременного обращения пациентов за медицинской помощью. Одним из инструментов для решения данной проблемы является поиск предикторов развития бронхоэктазов у больных хроническим слизисто-гнойным бронхитом.</p></sec><sec><title>Цель</title><p>Цель: оптимизация прогнозирования формирования бронхоэктазов у пациентов с хроническим слизисто-гнойным бронхитом.</p></sec><sec><title>Материал и методы</title><p>Материал и методы. Проведено наблюдение за 92 пациентами с хроническим слизисто-гнойным бронхитом, предпринята попытка прогнозирования формирования у них бронхоэктазов через 12 мес. наблюдения. Через указанное время оценили течение хронического заболевания. Основную группу разделили на две подгруппы в зависимости от развития бронхоэктазов по данным компьютерной томографии органов грудной клетки (КТ ОГК). В исследовании было две контрольные точки: первая – обострение хронического слизисто-гнойного бронхита, вторая – через 12 мес. после первой контрольной точки. Определялось содержание циркулирующих аннексин V мононуклеаров, находящихся на разных стадиях апоптоза, и нейтрофильно-лимфоцитарный индекс (НЛИ).</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Установлено, что увеличение значения НЛИ при обострении хронического слизисто-гнойного бронхита на единицу увеличивает риск формирования бронхоэктазов в 57,136 раза. Наличие ассоциации микробных агентов увеличивает риск формирования бронхоэктазов в 57,077 раза. Увеличение удельного веса (%) циркулирующих аннексин V мононуклеаров на ранней стадии апоптоза в начале обострения на 1% увеличивает риск формирования бронхоэктазов в 4,982 раза, увеличение продолжительности заболевания на 1 год увеличивает риск в 1,633 раза.</p></sec><sec><title>Выводы</title><p>Выводы. Полученный персонализированный алгоритм прогнозирования вероятности формирования бронхэктазов у больных хроническим слизисто-гнойным бронхитом обладает высокой чувствительностью и специфичностью – 96,6 и 98,4% соответственно.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. Chronic bronchitis is the most common chronic lung disease. The main problem of this disease is late diagnosis due to mild clinical symptomatology and untimely application of patients for medical help. One tool to solve this problem is the search of predictors of bronchiectasis development in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis.</p></sec><sec><title>Aim</title><p>Aim: To optimize the prediction of bronchiectasis formation in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis.</p></sec><sec><title>Material and Methods</title><p>Material and Methods. Observation of 92 patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis was carried out and an attempt to predict bronchiectasis formation in them after 12 months of observation was made. The course of chronic mucopurulent bronchitis was assessed after 12 months. The main group was divided into two subgroups depending on the development of bronchiectasis according to chest computed tomography (CCT). The content of circulating annexin V mononuclear cells at different stages of apoptosis of circulating annexin V mononuclear cells and the neutrophil-lymphocyte index (NLI) were determined.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. To develop a personalized prediction of the probability of bronchiectasis formation in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis after 12 months, the studied biomarkers were analyzed and the dynamics of these biomarkers were assessed after 12 months of observation (second control point). Increasing the probability of bronchiectasis development in patients with chronic mucous-purulent bronchitis according to the results of the study are: increase in the value of neutrophil-lymphocytic index at exacerbation of chronic mucous-purulent bronchitis by 1 increases the risk of bronchiectasis formation in 57,136. The presence of association of microbial agents increases the risk of bronchiectasis formation by 57,077 times. Increase in the specific weight (%) of circulating annexin V mononuclear cells at the early stage of apoptosis at the beginning of exacerbation by 1% increases the risk of bronchiectasis formation by 4,982 times, increase in disease duration by 1 year increases the risk by 1,633 times.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Conclusion. The obtained personalized algorithm for predicting the probability of bronchiectasis formation in patients with chronic mucopurulent bronchitis has high sensitivity and specificity – 96,6% and 98,4%, respectively.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>хронический слизисто-гнойный бронхит</kwd><kwd>апоптоз</kwd><kwd>нейтрофильно-лимфоцитарный индекс</kwd><kwd>бронхоэктазы</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>chronic purulent bronchitis</kwd><kwd>apoptosis</kwd><kwd>neutrophil-lymphocyte index</kwd><kwd>bronchiectasis</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">исследование выполнено без финансовой поддержки грантов, общественных, некоммерческих, коммерческих организаций и структур</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">the study was carried out without financial support from grants, public, non-profit, commercial organizations and structures</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Кураева В.М., Фейгинова С.И., Подчернина А.М. 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