Structural-dynamic analysis of indicators for survival and life expectancy in the population of industrial city

 An assessment of sustainability of urban socio-ecological system development may be carried out based on the analysis of indicators from the mortality and life expectancy tables that are widely used as the systemic indicators for the levels of territorial socio-economic development and the quality of life and health of the population.

Aim. The aim of the study was to perform the structural-dynamic analysis and assessment of survival rates and life expectancy in the population of Angarsk, a large industrial city in the Irkutsk region, for the post-Soviet  period.

Material and Methods. The short tables of population mortality rates for the period of 1990–2019 were calculated based on official data from the Federal State Statistic Service. The epidemiological analysis of survival rates, life expectancy, and its component composition was carried out according to the method of C. Chandra Sekar.

Results. The population aged under 29 years had the highest survival rates in 2016–2019 and the lowest survival rates in the first half of the 1990s. Older working age cohorts demonstrated the highest survival rates in 1990–1991 and the lowest survival rates in 2003–2004. Cohorts of retirement-age men showed the highest survival rates in the mid-2010s whereas female cohorts had the highest rates mostly in 2018–2019; the lowest survival rates were observed in 1994–1996. The life expectancy rates decreased in men of almost all age groups in 1995; the most significant decreases were observed in the groups of 30–54 year-old men and 40–54, 60–69, and 85–89 year-old women. The second pronounced decrease in the life expectancy rates occurred in 2005: the rates significantly decreased (by 6.8 years) in the cohorts of men aged 20–44 and 50–54 years. The most pronounced decreases in life expectancy of women were observed in age groups of 15–34, 40–44, 50–54, and 85–89 year-olds in 2001.

Conclusion. In the 1990s and during the first half of the 2000s, the systemic socio-economic crisis caused pronounced decreases in the rates of survival and life expectancy in various age groups of the population of Angarsk. The dynamics of studied demographic indicators in 2010–2019 was characterized by a steady linear growth. Further changes in the indicators will depend on the extent of impact of unfolding COVID-19 pandemic on the population and pandemic-triggered crisis-related phenomena in the socio-economic sphere. 

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