Analysis of accuracy of risk assessment tools for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation in ST-elevation myocardial nfarction with percutaneous coronaty intervention (a systematic review)

Introduction. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, occurring in 2–4% of the adult population. Among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) ranges from 4 to 28%. The development of NOAF after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in STEMI patients is associated with an increased risk of hospital mortality and adverse long-term outcomes.

Aim: To assess the prognostic performance of existing risk stratification tools for predicting NOAF in STEMI patients after PCI.

Methods. A literature search was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines. Data from international databases, including PubMed, Web of Science, and others, published between 2020 and 2025, were analyzed. Studies addressing the prediction of NOAF developing during hospitalization in STEMI patients after PCI were included. A total of 23 articles were selected for the final analysis.

Results and Discussion. The reported incidence of NOAF in STEMI patients after PCI ranged from 2.3% to 17%, indicating substantial variability. The occurrence of NOAF was associated with increased in-hospital mortality, which was 2–3 times higher in patients with arrhythmia. The predictive accuracy of existing risk scores not originally designed to assess NOAF risk (including CHA2DS2-VASc, HATCH, POAF, etc.) was insufficient, with AUC < 0.7. In contrast, most NOAF prediction models developed specifically in STEMI cohorts undergoing PCI demonstrated higher discriminative ability (AUC: 0.758–0.839). This superior performance may be explained by the inclusion of predictors reflecting systemic inflammatory response, metabolic and nutritional status, which indirectly characterize the severity of ischemic injury, myocardial remodeling, and neurohumoral imbalance associated with an increased risk of NOAF.

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